Spatial pattern evolution and its driving factors for the fruit industry in China

In this study, we investigate China’s fruit production patterns, spatial evolution characteristics, and driving factors, with the goal of providing scientific evidence surrounding the high-quality development of the fruit industry. Based on the provincial panel data of fruit production in China from 2000 to 2024, this study explores the spatial evolution characteristics of China’s fruit industry using the production concentration index, the production scale index, the gravity center migration model, and the standard deviational ellipse model; further, we explore the factors influencing the fruit industry using the spatial autocorrelation analysis and the spatial Durbin model. The results show that the gravity center of fruit production in China has been consistently shifting westward, with this trend showing signs of further intensification. Notably, significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial spillover effects exist in China’s fruit production distribution, with spatial dependence particularly strengthening progressively in western regions. The spatial variation in fruit production in China is influenced by certain factors: sunshine hours, disaster intensity, comparative returns, urbanization level, effective irrigation area, technological progress, and fiscal agricultural policies. Meanwhile, the degree of impact exerted by these driving factors on changes in production distribution varies significantly across different fruit-producing regions. Therefore, based on the spatial dynamics of China’s fruit production patterns, in this article, we propose that the spatial distribution of fruit production is optimized by leveraging region-specific resource endowments. Simultaneously, it is important to fully harness technological progress, as the primary driver, and to effectively capitalize on the positive spillover effects from other contributing factors. Accordingly, it is possible to enhance the industry’s support systems, with the ultimate goal of achieving the optimized spatial distribution of fruit production in China.