The association between young adults’ future expectations and fertility intentions: challenges in an urbanized society in Korea, 2022

Background Declining fertility rates challenge urban health systems. In 2024, South Korea recorded the lowest total fertility rate (0.68) among OECD countries. Existing financial incentives have shown limited effectiveness, particularly in complex urban settings. This study examines the association between young adults’ future expectations and fertility intentions, drawing on Snyder’s Hope Theory (1994) as a conceptual lens. Methods This quantitative study used secondary data from the nationally representative 2023 Korea Youth Life Survey. A self-reported scale assessed perceived feasibility of achieving one’s desired future. Generalized linear models (GLMs) with a Poisson distribution estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Stepwise adjustments controlled for confounders, and subgroup analyses explored demographic variations. Results Young adults with positive future expectations were 1.46 times (PR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.34–1.59) more likely to have fertility intentions. The association remained significant after adjusting for income, employment, and perceived socioeconomic status. Stronger effects were observed among men (PR: 2.87; 95% CI: 2.32–3.54), low-SES individuals (PR: 2.60; 95% CI: 2.22–3.05), and non-metropolitan residents (PR: 2.89; 95% CI: 2.37–3.51). Conclusion Positive future expectations were associated with higher fertility intentions among young adults in South Korea. Policies supporting career development, stable employment, and mental well-being may complement traditional financial incentives by addressing psychological dimensions of fertility-related decision-making. Further research is needed to determine whether these approaches translate into fertility behavior or population-level fertility changes.