The Policy Effects of Electoral Competition During the Scholz Years: Migration and Energy Policies Compared

This article examines the impact of electoral competition on the political decisions of the Scholz government in the areas of energy policy and migration. These issues were at the top of the public agenda during the 20th legislative period. The demand side of party competition was characterised by volatile public opinion with the outcome of the 2025 federal election remaining uncertain until the very end. On the supply side, we show that the opposition offered credible and generally competent alternatives in migration and, to some extent, in energy policy. Our quantitative and qualitative findings show that, in the case of energy policy, the immediate crisis responses remained largely unaffected by competition for votes, while electoral considerations did play a role in other areas (e.g. the Gebäudeenergiegesetz). In contrast, polarised party competition played a significant role in migration policy, as the government parties were challenged programmatically from two sides: on the one hand by a left wing that tended to be liberal on migration, and on the other by the restrictive Christian Democrats and the AfD. It was difficult for the coalition partners to escape this dilemma: concessions to one side always entailed electoral risks on the other.