Technical Efficiency and Determinants of Creative Exports: A Stochastic Frontier Assessment With Scenario Evidence for Uzbekistan

This study examines the technical efficiency of creative exports and the relationships between export performance, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, information and communication technology (ICT) use, and patent activity, with an emphasis on Uzbekistan. Drawing on econometric estimates provided in the underlying research note, the paper presents a Cobb–Douglas stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), reviews specification and diagnostic tests, and evaluates three counterfactual scenarios using Uzbekistan's 2023 baseline exports of USD 273 million. The reported frontier has a gamma parameter of 0.936 and a mean technical efficiency of 0.31. The estimated export elasticities are 0.021644 for GDP per capita, 9.951532 for ICT use, and -0.226031 for patent counts. The original first-order simulations imply export levels of USD 408.8 million following a 5% increase in ICT use, USD 273.6 million following a 10% increase in GDP per capita, and USD 266.8 million following a 10% increase in patent counts. However, the likelihood-ratio (LR) test for inefficiency, with a reported p-value of 0.2303, does not reject the null hypothesis of no inefficiency at the 5% significance level. Exact Cobb-Douglas counterfactual calculations also yield different results, particularly for ICT use. The findings therefore identify digital readiness as an important model-associated factor while emphasizing the limitations related to statistical inference, replication, and causal identification.