Land degradation neutrality state and progress in the Central Region, Malawi

Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) is vital for the long-term sustainability of human well-being and the realisation of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3.1. We estimated the overall indicator of SDG 15.3.1, the proportion of land that is degraded over the total land area in the Central Region, Malawi, from 2001 to 2022, using the Trends.Earth tool in QGIS. The study applied the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Good Practice Guidance methodology for SDG Indicator 15.3.1 assessment, integrating land cover, land productivity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) sub-indicators. The default datasets in the Trends.Earth plugin were adopted for all sub-indicators. The study has revealed that: (i) The proportion of degraded land increased from 26.8% in the baseline period (2001–2015) to 41.2% in the monitoring period (2016–2022). Stable land area decreased from 62.2% to 55.7%, while improved land area declined from 10.0% to 2.0%. Overall, during the entire study period (2001–2022), 27.1% of the land remained degraded, 62.4% was stable, and 9.4% improved. (ii) Land with degraded productivity significantly declined from 74.5% to 29.3%. In contrast, land with stable productivity slightly increased from 1.1% to 1.9%. (iii) SOC levels remained largely stable (>97%), although slight losses occurred in cropland, grassland, and wetland areas. (iv) Land cover remained predominantly stable (96.7%) throughout the study period. The overall SDG 15.3.1 indicator indicates continued degradation trends exceeding the rate of land recovery and restoration. This study has highlighted key spatial patterns and identified insights into the priority areas for targeted LDN interventions in the Central Region of Malawi. The findings provide critical evidence for guiding sustainable land management strategies and accelerating progress toward achieving land degradation neutrality in Malawi.