A history of child sexual abuse is associated with sexual recidivism: a meta-analysis

This meta-analysis examined the predictive validity of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) for sexual recidivism, an association that remains theoretically important but empirically mixed. Drawing on 18 studies, we examined the relationship between CSA and sexual recidivism using log odds ratios, with analyses stratified by age group (adolescents, k = 10; adults, k = 8). Results indicated a statistically significant but small overall association between CSA and sexual recidivism, with a significant effect observed in adult samples but not adolescent samples. However, subgroup differences by age were not statistically significant. These findings suggest that CSA may represent a modest empirically supported risk factor for sexual recidivism while also functioning as a broader developmental vulnerability associated with the onset and persistence of sexual offending. Incorporating CSA within structured professional judgment frameworks may enhance risk formulation by emphasising its functional consequences rather than the abuse history alone.PRACTICE IMPACT STATEMENT This meta-analysis suggests that childhood sexual abuse is associated with a small increase in the odds of sexual recidivism and may represent a modest empirically supported risk factor. For clinical and forensic practice, CSA is best considered within structured professional judgment approaches that evaluate its current functional consequences alongside other established risk factors, while avoiding deterministic interpretations based solely on abuse history.