Perceptions of tax enforcement in Tanzania: Implications for compliance and policy reform

This study examines taxpayers’ perceptions of tax enforcement in Tanzania and their implications for perceived tax compliance and policy reform. The study identifies critical perception gaps undermining enforcement legitimacy using nationally representative data from the 2021 Afrobarometer Survey (round 8) and a generalised ordered logit model. Key findings reveal that trust in tax officials and autonomy of the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) strongly predict compliance. Corruption perceptions reduce the probability of full compliance by 37–83 percent. Significant disparities emerge between urban and rural contexts, with rural residents and informal sector actors perceiving enforcement as weak and inequitable, driving evasion (52.4 percent engage in tax avoidance). The analysis further exposes how perceived unfairness in burden-sharing—particularly the under-taxation of high-income earners erodes voluntary compliance. The study argues that effective tax enforcement requires institutional reforms and perceived legitimacy. Policy recommendations include: (1) securing TRA’s operational autonomy to depoliticise enforcement; (2) deploying mobile tax units and simplified presumptive schemes for rural/informal sectors; (3) anti-corruption measures (e.g. AI-audit systems, transparency portals); and (4) nationwide tax literacy programs to align enforcement with fairness expectations. This study provides empirical grounding for reimagining enforcement as a trust-based, context-sensitive tool for sustainable revenue mobilisation. This study examines perceptions of tax enforcement in Tanzania and their implications for tax compliance and policy reform. It highlights the importance of public trust, perceived corruption, and fairness in shaping compliance behaviour. The findings can inform more transparent, equitable, and effective tax administration policies to strengthen voluntary compliance and domestic revenue mobilisation.