Convergence Between China’s and Japan’s African Cooperation Summits: The Role of African Agency

Abstract “Africa + 1” forums, structured as ministerial meetings or summits between African nations and an external partner, have become increasingly prominent in the international cooperation arena. Beyond growing adoption of the “Africa + 1” model, these forums increasingly resemble each other in substantive orientation and institutional structure. We examine convergence between two of the first and most influential forums hosted by countries with no colonial ties to Africa, the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) with Japan and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). In contrast to literature that identifies international organizations or powerful states as development policy entrepreneurs that drive convergence, we hypothesize that African diplomats were the central actors driving expanded adoption and convergence among “Africa + 1” forums. We employ qualitative Bayesian analysis to systematically test the African agency hypothesis against a bilateral learning hypothesis, which holds that Japan and China each sought to emulate innovations that provided the other with material or international reputational gains. Our analysis draws on original new evidence from interviews with Chinese, Japanese, and African officials and experts who participated in TICAD and FOCAC, as well as internal documents about the decision-making processes surrounding the initiation of FOCAC.