Mapping Future Energy Journeys Through Modeling the Global Transport of Synthetic Energy Carriers

Synthetic energy carriers can connect renewable-energy-rich potential production regions with distant demand centers, but the emergence of trade depends on total supply costs. Here, we develop a spatially resolved heuristic combining hydrogen production costs with ports, pipelines, and shipping routes, as well as syntheses, cracking, and reformation processes, to identify key import corridors. Across 10,883 production locations and seven different scenarios, we find that export regions connected to the importer through retrofit-ready pipelines remain competitive despite only moderate renewable potentials. Meanwhile, for remote exporters competitiveness depends on port availability and coastal access through pipeline networks. Gaseous hydrogen dominates short pipeline routes, and ammonia is preferred for maritime trade, whereas methanol and methane emerge in long multimodal chains. Additional results show that low-cost heat availability is required for the competitiveness of liquid organic hydrogen carriers, while accounting for market values of conventional counterparts boosts ammonia and methanol trade.