Seasonal–hourly assessment of data center spatial flexibility under renewable variability: A case study of Jeju Island

Policy interest in data center deployment away from the Seoul metropolitan area has made renewable-rich Jeju Island a leading candidate, yet its island grid offers limited transfer capability, and the demand it can accommodate has not been quantified. Spatial flexibility has emerged as a promising alternative to network reinforcement, but transmission-level studies remain limited, and those available specify the data center capacity as an input rather than determining it. This study determines the capacity as an outcome, embedding an incremental capacity analysis in a DC optimal power flow formulation solved across sixteen seasonal–hourly operating conditions. For the Jeju power system, 200 MW can be accommodated without reinforcement under firm connection, the limit being set by the summer evening condition in which peak net load coincides with the lowest wind availability of the year; other conditions admit up to 360 MW. Spatial workload redistribution extends the binding limit to 320 MW, with gains of 80–160 MW across conditions. The extension is bounded by whichever is exhausted first, flow concentration at the sending site or renewable availability at the receiving site, and which factor binds reverses across seasons: summer is absorption-limited, spring congestion-limited, and winter binds on both. Approximately 30% migration capability sustains these limits in fifteen of sixteen conditions, with migration capability and receiving capacity required in equal measure and benefits saturating beyond this level. The results translate a siting policy into the capacity a renewable-rich island grid can absorb and the operating conditions under which that capacity can be extended.