Democracy matters twice: How democracy relates to winner-loser gaps in political trust across countries and over time

This study explores how non-democratic experiences shape gaps in political trust between electoral winners and losers in contemporary democracies, complementing existing theories that focus solely on citizens’ limited democratic experience within democratic contexts. We argue that democracy matters twice: first through historical legacies of authoritarian rule, and second through contemporary democratic improvements. Using harmonized data from the European Social Survey and Americas Barometer across 40 countries in Europe and Latin America (2002–2018), we demonstrate that individuals with greater personal exposure to autocratic rule display stronger reactions to electoral outcomes, resulting in winner-loser gaps twice as large among those who spent their entire adult lives under autocracy compared to those with no autocratic experience. Our findings also reveal that political trust is not culturally fixed but responds to democratic quality. Short-term improvements in liberal democracy significantly narrow winner-loser gaps, primarily by increasing trust among electoral losers who benefit from enhanced checks on power, free speech, and minority rights. Conversely, democratic backsliding widens these gaps. These results enhance understanding of how historical legacies and current democratic conditions together shape political trust and provide crucial insights for understanding its political polarization (politicization) and democratic challenges in post-authoritarian societies.