(In)consistency on the route to Paris: EU and Swedish climate and forest-related policy mixes towards the fulfilment of the Paris Agreement

In response to the Paris Agreement and the EU’s climate emergency declaration, the EU has enacted policies strengthening forests’ role in climate mitigation. This paper analyses the climate-forest policy mix at EU and national levels, using Sweden as critical case. We examine the horizontal and vertical consistency of these policy mixes, focusing on problem framings, goals, targets, roles assigned to forests, and procedural – and substantive policy instruments. Combining these aspects into a single analysis adds to previous research by creating more comprehensive understanding of challenges and (in)consistencies in the policy mix, both regarding potential goal trade-offs, approaches towards goal achievement, and (lacking) connections between objectives and policy instruments. We identify four major inconsistencies: (1) differing views on the appropriate balance of EU and Member State influence over forests; (2) numerous policy objectives but few specific targets and concrete instruments; (3) EU’s focus on regulations and market-based instruments versus Sweden’s focus on voluntary actions and ownership rights; and (4) contrasting preferences regarding forest management practices. To bridge these gaps, policymakers need to clearly delineate the EU’s and Member States’ roles, establish measurable and timebound objectives linked to tailored policy instruments, and implement mechanisms for adaptive, multifunctional, and just forest management.