Digitalization and Ecological Innovation in Transitional Urban Agglomerations: Direct Effects, Moderating Effects, and Spatial Heterogeneity

Can digitalization resolve the tension between industrialization and ecological protection in transitional regions? Using panel data from 11 cities in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration (2003–2022), this study employs the SAR model to examine the direct, moderating, and heterogeneous effects of urban digitalization on ecological innovation capacity. The results reveal that: (1) Digitalization significantly promotes local ecological innovation and generates positive spatial spillovers to neighboring cities. (2) Both human capital and urbanization positively moderate this relationship, and urbanization delivers the stronger moderating effect. (3) The innovation-enhancing effect is pronounced in non-core cities, small- and medium-sized cities, and old-industrial-base cities, yet insignificant in core cities, large cities and non-old-industrial-base cities. In resource-based cities and high ecological-pressure cities, ecological innovation is primarily driven by education level rather than digitalization. These findings reveal the conditional effects through which digitalization enables green transition, offering policy insights for developing regions facing similar structural challenges.