When conflict reaches the tourism economy: firm-level evidence from UAE equity markets

Geopolitical conflict can disrupt tourism economies by weakening mobility, confidence, and investment. The 2026 Iran–U.S. war represents a severe geopolitical shock. This study examines how the Iran–U.S. war affected tourism-related firms in the United Arab Emirates across hospitality, transport, real estate, utilities, and finance. The findings reveal a clear pattern of exposure. Transport, real estate, and hospitality firms experienced the strongest valuation declines, while hotel and catering firms faced more moderate losses. Evidence for utilities and property finance remains inconclusive. Overall, conflict affects the wider tourism economy through distinct sectoral channels rather than through a uniform market response. The study advances understanding of how geopolitical shocks spread through an interconnected destination economy and supports targeted crisis responses. Policy and business continuity measures should prioritise highly exposed sectors, strengthen connectivity and financial resilience, and maintain close monitoring where evidence remains uncertain.