Beneath the tip of the iceberg: Prevalence and characteristics of cyclists' safety critical events – A German field study

Although cycling offers numerous advantages, existing research identifies significant barriers to its uptake. These include feeling unsafe in traffic. While cyclist-centered infrastructure may address objective safety deficits, its impact on perceived insecurity remains uncertain. To address this gap and as an approach to map the safety continuum, we conducted a national field study in Germany that combined on-site observations and interviews to determine the number of so far undocumented safety-critical events (SCEs), which are precursors to crashes and indicators of infrastructure quality. Specifically, we investigated SCEs and their characteristics (involved interaction partners, causes, evasive actions) in relation to infrastructure type and assessment method (observation, interview). Over 12 weeks, we observed 34,676 cyclists in three medium-sized German cities, and surveyed 978. The results clearly show that SCEs occur frequently. From the perspective of cyclists, 10 to 28 times more SCEs are reported than observed, depending on the infrastructure. These results have several implications: SCEs should be considered when designing infrastructure, as they can reduce subjective perceptions of safety and potentially lead to less sustainable mobility. Infrastructure should be designed so that all road users are not only objectively safe but also subjectively, i.e., fear-free, when travelling. The findings underscore the importance of incorporating both cyclists' perspectives and SCEs into infrastructure planning, as cyclists perceive risk differently and often avoid crashes through defensive riding, so SCEs are not recorded in official crash statistics.