Do tariffs redirect innovation towards production adaptation? Evidence from Chinese exporters and the U.S. Section 301 tariffs

Among 7,892 Chinese manufacturing exporters, greater exposure to U.S. Section 301 tariffs is associated with more production-adaptation patenting. Our measure requires both production-related patent text and a technology-class link to the owner’s pre-shock production structure. Filing probability rises by 1.00 percentage point per standard deviation of exposure, against a 12.8% base rate. The log-one-plus association stays positive across classification thresholds, weighting windows and general-purpose IPC exclusions. Point estimates are larger for larger firms and prior invention applicants. Through 2021, production-related filings outgrow other inventions. Equipment and automation filings, utility-model applications and electricity use also rise with exposure. We interpret these findings as a shift of patenting towards production adaptation, without measured movement away from the technology classes of tariff-exposed products.