Retrospective Analysis of Landscape Desertification in the Aral Sea Region

Aim . Determining the direction of evolution for landscape in the Aral Sea region (including Aralkum desert) in conditions of climatic desertification. Methodology . Data for feedback system supporting climatic desertification with inherent processes in Central Asia have been summarized; its main indicators have been identified. The analysis of time series for key parameters has been completed: the first group includes climatic parameters of weather stations located in the Aral Sea region for 75 years (1940–2015); the second group includes 2 time series from combined Terra/Aqua and NOAA/Metop satellites data (MODIS and AVHRR systems): it reflects dynamics of spectral patterns in the surface – land surface temperature (LST, 1983–2022) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, 1983–2014). Spatial and statistical analysis for indicators of climatic desertification has been performed. Results . The synchronicity of parameter changes in the feedback system supporting climatic desertification in the Aral Sea region has been confirmed. At the same time, it was determined that the Aral Sea region is the part of large ecotone located in Central Asia (with a weak tendency to expand the ecotone boundary to the north) separating areas of aridization in the south of Turanian lowland. It was estimated that the total productivity of geosystems in Aralkum desert has an increase, but also the relative productivity has a decrease. These trends indicate the process of primary succession occurs in conjunction with the ongoing desiccation of the Aral Sea. The expansion and stabilization of Aralkum natural complexes indicated as ecotonic have been defined. Research implications . It’s considered that gradual merging of Aralkum with zonal ecotonic landscape in the Aral Sea region will continue despite the ongoing drainage of the Aral Sea and expansion of new unproductive areas. It will happen by primary succession. Expanding the knowledge about natural changes of Aralkum natural complexes can develop the theoretical basis for artificial stabilization of the Aral Sea’s drained bottom and for its effectiveness with afforestation.