A Methodology for Calculating Casualties from Nuclear Explosions

Recent threats by Russian politicians to attack NATO countries with nuclear weapons provide an impetus to develop a well-defined framework for assessing the potential human impacts of such a conflict. Here we propose a new methodology for computing the potential casualties and fatalities from a nuclear explosion over a populated area. Considerable information is available regarding human responses to explosive shock waves, ionizing nuclear radiation, and intense heat radiance, compiled from medical studies and wartime experiences. In the case of nuclear weapons, the main effects of blast overpressure, initial neutron and gamma ray fluxes, and thermal radiation are readily calculated as a function of distance from a detonation point once the energy yield and height of burst are specified. Combining information on nuclear weapon effects and human responses to such effects, a new probabilistic model is developed to estimate the rates of morbidity and mortality in a nuclear attack. Furthermore, possible hazards to the immediate survivors due to mass fires ignited by weapon bursts are addressed. Among the data utilized to validate our casualty model are observations from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombings. Extrapolations of possible outcomes to much larger modern strategic nuclear weapons are also illustrated.