Projected population size by treatment line in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the United States, 2024–2028

Numerous novel therapies have emerged for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). This study used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and published efficacy estimates to project the number of adults in various DLBCL subpopulations on each line of therapy (LOT) from 2024 to 2028, accounting for potential new therapies. The projected average annual number of patients on first-line (1 L), second-line (2 L), and third-line (3 L) LOT was 30,404, 8,130, and 3,707, respectively, in the base case. The model predicted an increase in 1 L population over time, while the 2 L and 3 L populations were projected to increase initially and then decline, likely reflecting increased use of novel treatments in earlier lines. The trends were consistent across age groups and sensitivity analyses. However, the projections were sensitive to the assumptions and values of certain inputs. The findings may support clinical sequencing decisions and inform future payer strategies in DLBCL management.