Rocky Desertification Sensitivity Changes and Management Zoning in the Guilin Karst World Natural Heritage Site

Identifying changes in rocky desertification sensitivity is an important basis for land degradation prevention and sustainable use in karst World Natural Heritage sites. This study incorporates recent sensitivity deterioration into zoning rules to distinguish prevention and restoration priorities under conservation constraints. Using multisource data for five observation years from 2005 to 2023, we constructed the rocky desertification sensitivity index (RDSI) for the Guilin Karst World Natural Heritage Site. We analysed the spatiotemporal changes and spatial clustering of RDSI and the composition of its dominant sensitivity components. The optimal parameter-based geographical detector then assessed associations with external factors and their interactions. Management zoning integrated 2023 sensitivity classes, class changes from 2020 to 2023, tourism development potential and core zone protection constraints. Sensitivity declined overall, with mean RDSI falling from 4.112 to 3.540 (13.91%), although the direction of change varied among periods. Improvement covered 36.47% of the area from 2015 to 2020, whereas deterioration covered 17.49% from 2020 to 2023. RDSI showed significant spatial clustering in all five years, and types dominated by slope or fractional rock cover predominated. Among external factors, elevation had the highest spatial explanatory power in every year, with a multiyear mean q value of 0.362, followed by land-use intensity and mean annual temperature. Interaction detection showed that the combination of precipitation and elevation had the highest mean joint q value (0.465). The study area was ultimately divided into five management zones, among which conservation maintenance and low disturbance use predominated, accounting for 42.83% and 27.29%, respectively. The remaining areas were assigned to risk prevention, priority restoration, and conservation and use coordination zones. These findings show that declining sensitivity over the long term can coexist with recent localised deterioration. Integrating current sensitivity classes, recent change, tourism development potential and protection constraints helps identify spatial priorities for core zone conservation, field verification of recently deteriorating patches and assessment of restoration needs, and low disturbance use in peripheral areas.