Health Assessment, Obstacle Diagnosis, and Limitation Pathways of Desert Shelterbelts on the Northern Piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains

We assessed 13 desert shelterbelt plots between Wusu and Jimsar using a 25-indicator health index integrating stand structure and growth, soil properties, habitat and climate, and health risks. Soil variables combined mean 0–200 cm profile contents with 0–20 cm nutrient contents. Entropy and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) weights were combined by game-theoretic weighting; obstacle degrees, limitation pathways, and 5000 bootstrap iterations were used to describe relative score deficits and uncertainty. The entropy and AHP coefficients were 0.6034 and 0.3966. Health indices ranged from 0.3159 to 0.6930: ten plots were generally healthy, two unhealthy, and one subhealthy. Six 95% bootstrap intervals crossed a class threshold. Maximum patch-area proportion and crown width had the largest combined weights and mean obstacle degrees of 12.19% and 10.86%, respectively. Point estimates assigned seven plots to structural limitation, five to soil limitation, and one to external pressure; the bootstrap indicated stable pathway dominance at 12 plots. These model-derived patterns identify plot-specific priorities for subsequent field evaluation, rather than measured ecological drivers or temporal trends.