The dynamics of regional food self-sufficiency: trends and shocks

This paper aims to analyse changes in self-sufficiency ratios in different measurement dimensions and across a wide range of food items. Our method estimates self-sufficiency ratios based on the production available for local consumption. In the context of a small region specialised in agricultural exports, this procedure avoids the distortions caused by procedures that ignore the destination markets of local production. The dynamics of food self-sufficiency are illustrated by calculating quinquennial and annual ratios for the Canary Islands between 2012 and 2023 in terms of volume, commercial value and energy content. Self-sufficiency ratios are defined as the proportion of local food production consumed in the local market in relation to all food production consumed in that market. The originality of the method used consists in obtaining specific results for the supply available for the consumption of a wide range of products intended for human consumption in different measurement dimensions and time periods. This procedure allows for detecting temporal changes related to the effects of prices and to the varying composition of food consumption. The results reveal the relative stability of the overall degree of self-sufficiency in the three dimensions of measurement, but with gradual changes in the different food groups that make up consumption. Among the trends detected on a quinquennial basis, there is a 4-percentage- point increase in self-sufficiency in non-processed plant products in terms of value, related to a progressive reorientation of export products towards the local market. Regarding the shocks, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are reflected in a temporary increase in self-sufficiency in 2020 at around 1, 2 and 3% points in volume, commercial value and energy content, respectively. The war in Ukraine generated an inflationary context that led to a reduction in the degree of self-sufficiency by more than 3% points in all measurement dimensions in 2022. The results are useful in the process of evaluating agri-food policies, particularly the modulation of the relative intensities of EU subsidies for local production and imports of certain food products.