Decoupling of Economic Growth and Co₂ Emissions in the Philippines: An Application of the Tapio Model, 1990–2022

Whether a growing economy can reduce its carbon emissions is central to climate policy in developing countries.This study examined the relationship between real GDP and fossil CO₂ emissions in the Philippines from 1990 to 2022 using the Tapio decoupling model, supported by Mann-Kendall trend tests and a decomposition of emissions into economic activity, energy intensity, and the carbon intensity of energy.Data were taken from the Global Carbon Budget 2025, the Maddison Project Database 2023, and international energy statistics, as compiled by Our World in Data.Over the whole period, GDP grew by 345% and CO₂ emissions by 270%, giving an elasticity of 0.78, or weak decoupling.The annual results, however, show three distinct phases.In the 1990s, emissions grew faster than the economy in five of ten years.From 2001 to 2010, the country achieved strong decoupling in four years and weak decoupling in three, as energy use per unit of GDP fell by 36%.From 2011 to 2022, there was no year of strong decoupling, and the period elasticity returned to about 1.0, meaning emissions again grew as fast as the economy.Decomposition shows that over 1990-2022, falling energy intensity (-32%) offset part of the effect of economic growth, but rising carbon intensity of energy (+22%), driven by coal, worked against decoupling.The findings indicate that the Philippines has not yet achieved lasting decoupling and that further gains depend on reducing the carbon content of its energy supply, particularly in electricity generation.