The impact of Somali women's labour force participation on economic growth in Somalia

This study examines the relationship between women's labour force participation and Economic Growth in Somalia, a fragile economy characterized by high informality and persistent gender disparities. Using annual time-series data, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine the short- and long-run relationships between female labour force participation and real GDP per capita while controlling for trade openness, gross capital formation, fertility rate, and foreign direct investment. The long-run results are further assessed using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares and Canonical Cointegrating Regression estimators for robustness. The ARDL bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The long-run estimates show that female labour force participation has a positive and statistically significant long-run association with real GDP per capita, while trade openness is also positively and significantly associated with real GDP per capita. Gross capital formation and fertility exhibit weaker positive associations, whereas foreign direct investment is statistically insignificant in the ARDL specification. The error-correction term is negative and statistically significant, indicating convergence toward long-run equilibrium following short-run disturbances. This study contributes to the literature by isolating female labour force participation as the principal explanatory variable in a Somalia-specific time-series framework and demonstrating that its positive long-run association with real GDP per capita remains robust after accounting for relevant macroeconomic and demographic factors. From a policy perspective, the findings suggest that Somalia should strengthen policies that facilitate women's productive participation in economic activities, including improved access to skills, productive employment, finance, and market opportunities, as part of a broader strategy for strengthening economic performance and fostering inclusive development.