A 9-variable clinical prediction model for 5-year mortality in older adults with CKD demonstrated fair discrimination, with a c-statistic of 0.72 (95% CI 0.68-0.74) in the development cohort.
Cohort (n=1,617)
Effect estimate: c statistic 0.72 (95% CI 0.68-0.74)
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: CKD is associated with mortality. Accurate prediction tools for mortality may guide clinical decision-making, particularly among elderly persons with CKD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, 95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 0.74). When a point-based system was assigned for each of nine variables in the equation, the estimated risk of death within 5 years ranged from 3.8% among participants with the lowest scores to 83.6% among participants with nine points. The model performed fair in external validation (c statistic=0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: A simple prediction tool using nine readily available clinical variables can assist in predicting 5-year mortality risk in elderly patients with CKD, which may be useful in counseling patients and guiding clinical decision making.
Bansal et al. (Thu,) conducted a cohort in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (n=1,617). 9-variable mortality prediction model was evaluated on 5-year risk of mortality (c statistic 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.74). A 9-variable clinical prediction model for 5-year mortality in older adults with CKD demonstrated fair discrimination, with a c-statistic of 0.72 (95% CI 0.68-0.74) in the development cohort.