Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasting of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: Potential Predictability and Barriers

Abstract Whether seasonally phased-locked persistence and predictability barriers, similar to the boreal spring barriers found for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), exist for the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate is investigated using observations and hindcasts from two coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical ensemble forecast systems: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System (CFS) for 1990–2003, and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) system for 1993–2002. The potential predictability of the climate is also assessed under the “perfect model/ensemble” assumption. Lagged correlations of the indices calculated over the east and west poles of the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IDM) index show weak sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) persistence barriers in boreal spring at both poles, but the major decline in correlation at the east pole occurs in boreal midwinter for all start months with an almost immediate recovery, albeit negative correlations, until summer approaches. Processes responsible for the change in sign of SSTAs associated with a major IDM event effect a similar change on much weaker SSTAs. At the west pole, a major decline occurs at the end of boreal summer for fall and winter starts when the thermocline deepens with the seasonal cycle and coupling between the ocean and atmosphere is weak. A decline in skillful prediction of SSTA at the east pole over boreal winter is also found in the hindcasts, but the relatively large thermocline depth anomalies are skillfully predicted through this time and skill in SSTA prediction returns. A predictability barrier at the onset of the boreal summer monsoon is found at both IDM poles with some return of skill in late fall. Potential predictability calculations suggest that this barrier may be overcome at the west pole with improvements to the forecast systems, but not at the east pole for forecasts initiated in boreal winter unless the ocean is initialized with a memory of fall conditions.