Prediction of Mortality by Ultrasound Screening of a General Population for Carotid Stenosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The extensive use of ultrasound examination of carotid arteries has revealed stenosis in many asymptomatic subjects, and clinical studies have shown that carotid stenosis is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and death. However, information on stenosis as detected in a general population and its relation to mortality is scarce. The purpose of this population-based study was to assess whether carotid stenosis is a predictor of death. METHODS: In 1994 to 1995, 248 subjects with suspected carotid stenosis were identified among 6727 men and women 25 to 84 years of age who were examined with ultrasound. These subjects and 496 age- and sex-matched control subjects were followed up for 4.2 years, and the number and causes of deaths were registered. RESULTS: The unadjusted relative risk for death was 2.72 (95% CI, 1.57 to 4.75) for subjects with stenosis compared with control subjects. Adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors increased the relative risk to 3.47 (95% CI, 1.47 to 8.19). The adjusted relative risk in persons with stenosis and no cardiovascular disease or diabetes was 5.66 (95% CI, 1.53 to 20.90), which was higher than in subjects with stenosis and self-reported disease (1.79; 95% CI, 0.75 to 4.27). There was a dose-response relationship between degree of stenosis and risk of death (P=0.002 for linear trend). Carotid stenosis was a stronger predictor of death than self-reported cardiovascular disease or diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Carotid stenosis is a strong and independent predictor of death.