Survival Analysis and Specific Deterrence: Integrating Theoretical and Empirical Models of Recidivism*

This study uses survival analysis to test propositions from specific deterrence theory. It examines the effect of a custodial sentence on time until rearrest, generally and under various conditions. Results suggest that for those with few ties to conventional society and for first‐time arrestees, a sentence of incarceration increases the probability of rearrest. However, for arrestees with few ties and for experienced offenders, longer incarceration predicts longer time until rearrest.