The South African Fertility Decline

There is some evidence to suggest that Black South African started to decline in 1960 which was earlier than anywhere else in Black Africa. The Black South African population is larger than any Black population in Africa with the exception of Nigeria Ethiopia and Zaire. The national population program was an Asian-type program distinguished by expenditures and services not evident elsewhere in Africa. Clinical family planning (FP) services were densely located to provide better coverage than is available anywhere in the world. Contraceptive prevalence was around 60% for women overall and 50% for Black women in the 1990s. The FP program difference was in its lack of ability to mobilize the whole community. A lengthy discussion is provided of the early (pre-1963) demand for fertility control among different racial groups government intervention in its impact the relevance of the South African experiences to other parts of Africa and the implications of democratization efforts and majority Black rule. The Black population lives in an urban industrialized economy with an income level among the highest of African countries. Primary schooling is universal and 60% attend secondary school. Fertility data on the Black population are available from the fertility survey in 1974 and 1987-88. From these and other studies it appears that the White population followed a pattern similar to the Western model. Africaner fertility was higher than White fertility until about the 1960s and then followed a similar pattern. Indian Colored and Black women had a constant fertility of 6-7. Colored fertility began to decline after 1960 Indian after 1940 and Blacks in the 1970s and 1980s to rapidly reach 4.6 in 1989. The exact level of Black fertility is still somewhat in doubt. Population policy is demarcated by periods before 1963. 1963-74 (government intervention) 1974-83 (National FP Program) and from 1984 (the Population Development Program). Experience indicates that once there is demand for fertility control a FP program can lead to a decline in fertility but a fragile demand limits even the best FP program. Sociocultural resistance is stronger than that encountered in Asia and democratization and the political position of the African National Congress will bring about a reduction in funding but a broader popular identification for the FP program. As socioeconomic opportunities for Blacks increase it is likely that fertility will continue to fall.