The self-fulfilling prophecy of failed states: Somalia, state collapse and the Global War on Terror

Abstract Over recent decades, several states have experienced mounting difficulties in fulfilling classic state functions such as guaranteeing territorial integrity and law and order. Some “failing states” have even seen the disappearance of all central authority: “state collapse”. Since 11 September 2001, this phenomenon has been particularly associated with terrorism, trans-border criminality and global instability. The international community presents this “Orthodox Failed States Narrative” as an objective, apolitical analysis of a “new” problem. The hegemonic account cherishes ideological assumptions that are seldom made explicit and veil power asymmetries in the international political economy. The securitisation of the Global South provides the pretext for confrontation and top-down restructuring of domestic politics by Coalitions of the Willing in the context of the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Through analysis of America's Somalia policy, this article illustrates theoretical flaws underpinning the Orthodox Narrative together with the disastrous implications of America's new “Long War” in Africa's Horn. The absence of central government produced state collapse's archetype in Somalia: anarchy, lawlessness and an “Al-Qaeda safe-haven”, dixit Washington. This article challenges conventional wisdom by highlighting spontaneous emergences of new political complexes amidst the “chaos”, capable of providing order and stability. It explores the rise and fall of the Union of Islamic Courts. The Courts resembled a national liberation movement, based on their concoction of Sharia-justice, security and welfare provision. However, the Islamists’ tangible improvements in livelihoods were not permitted to continue. Imprisoned analytically by the Orthodox Narrative, Washington perceived the Courts as Somalia's “neo-Taliban”. This reductionist stance led to a self-fulfilling prophecy: as bellicose rhetoric radicalised positions in Mogadishu and Washington, an American-backed invasion by Ethiopia pushed-out the Islamists. Today, an insurgency is ravaging Somalia and the humanitarian situation has worsened dramatically: the GWOT's narrow world-vision has hindered the re-emergence of legitimate authority and blocked bottom-up responses to human security questions.