The controversy over the Caspian Sea mineral resources: Conflicting perceptions, clashing interests

ON 29 AUGUST 1995, at the summit meeting of the Turkic states in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey's President Suleyman Demirel explained why Ankara is so interested in having Azerbaijani, Kazakh and Turkmen oil and gas pipelines passing through Turkey. In his words, it was not economic benefits that Turkey was after: rather, Ankara was interested in lessening the economic and political dependence of the Caspian states on Russia. He said: 'It is to their strategic, political and economic benefit to get rid of any dependency. ... Turkey's approach on the oil and natural gas pipelines should be evaluated in this context'.' As Demirel suggested, Turkey's policy regarding the Caspian Sea problem is closely related to the post-Soviet rivalry between Turkey, Russia and Iran over the newly independent Turkic states surrounding the Caspian.2 By mid-1997 Turkey's attempts to play a significant role in the production and export of the Caspian oil seem to have been stalled by Moscow. After its exclusion from the September 1994 Azerbaijan oil contract, Tehran too adopted an antagonistic attitude toward Ankara's involvement, and in 1996 it embraced the Russian thesis on the Caspian Sea's legal status, restricting non-littorals' access to the Sea's mineral resources. The Turks are convinced that neither Russia's nor Iran's policy toward these states is conducive to furthering Turkey's national interests. Ankara believes that Russia is interested in recapturing its former privileged and dominant status in the region, whereas Iran is motivated by a desire to prevent the regional countries from becoming hostile collaborators with the West and with Turkey. The Russians, for their part, are interested in maintaining their sphere of influence in the region. Although various government agencies have different views on how to accomplish this goal, a general tendency in Moscow has been to restrict the involvement of 'outsiders' such as Turkey and the USA in this part of Russia's 'near abroad'. Towards this end Russia has pursued various policies, including the promotion of Russian pipelines as the only feasible means to export the region's oil resources, and disputing the legality of contracts the Caspian states have signed with Western consortia.