The Internet and International Trade in Services

The scope for growth of trade in services is vast. Although services currently make up over 60 percent of world production, they account for only about 20 percent of world trade. A primary reason why international trade in services has been limited is that the performance of many services necessitates physical contact between producers and consumers, a condition that renders service provision to distant locations infeasible. New technology, in particular, the Internet, provides a medium of exchange that overcomes such historical trading hurdles for many services, effectively reducing transport costs from infinity to virtually nothing. There is ample anecdotal evidence that the Internet is having just this sort of an effect on services trade. The accounting firm Netlink maintains the books for 6,000 employees in Reyanosa, Mexico, from their offices in Manhattan. Infosys of India provides softwareconsulting services to international clients, including Apple Computers, Lucent Technologies, and Microsoft. A medical-transcription company in South Africa, ITS, receives digital recordings from abroad electronically and returns a transcribed text file the next day. Still, the question remains as to whether electronic sharing of information is an important enough development to alter significantly the geography of service provision. Indeed, many services need to be tailored to the consumer’s needs and monitored for quality, and these are likely to be more effective if the provider is close by and speaks the same language. In addition, in the event of a dispute, resolution will be less complicated if both parties are subject to the same legal system. Finally, there may be security concerns with allowing foreign access to some documents or systems. Thus, for some services, especially those where familiarity, communication, and non-standardization contribute to quality, the Internet would not be expected to have a large impact on international trade. To determine whether the Internet has significantly affected international service provision in practice, we estimate a general model of services trade across countries and examine whether the inclusion of data on Internet penetration, as measured by the number of Internet hosts in a country, is statistically significant. Overall, our results offer evidence that the Internet is related to growth in services trade. After controlling for GDP and exchange-rate movements, we find that a 10-percent increase in Internet penetration in a foreign country is associated with about a 1.7-percentage-point increase in export growth and a 1.1-percentagepoint increase in import growth. The results are robust to a number of alternative specifications.