Risk factors of stroke incidence and mortality. A 12-year follow-up of the Oslo Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to determine the risk factors of stroke incidence and mortality. METHODS: Our data are based on a prospective cohort study of men aged 40 to 49 years after 12 years of follow-up. RESULTS: In age-adjusted Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis of 14,403 healthy men, diastolic blood pressure was a stronger predictor for stroke incidence and mortality than systolic blood pressure. Smoking was a stronger predictor of mortality than of incidence. However, there was no dose-response relation among smokers by increased cigarette consumption. Total serum cholesterol was a significant (P < .05) risk factor for stroke mortality and of borderline significance (P = .08) for stroke incidence. Increased physical activity at leisure was associated with reduced stroke incidence but not mortality. The myocardial infarction risk score comprising systolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, and daily cigarette smoking was a strong predictor of mortality and incidence. Body mass index, triglycerides, blood glucose, and physical activity at work were not found to be risk factors for stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction of blood pressure, cessation of smoking, lowered cholesterol, and increased physical activity at leisure are individual measures to reduce the risk of stroke.