Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea

We analyse recent Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and their response to global change using 1/4-degree gridded advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) daily SST data, 1982–2012. These data indicate significant annual warming (from 0.24 °C decade− 1 west of the Strait of Gibraltar to 0.51 °C decade− 1 over the Black Sea) and significant spatial variation in annual average SST (from 15 °C over the Black Sea to 21 °C over the Levantine sub-basin). Ensemble mean scenarios indicate that the study area SST may experience significant warming, peaking at 2.6 °C century− 1 in the Representative Concentration Pathways 85 (RCP85) scenario.