Prognostic Stratification by Conventional Echocardiography of Patients with Aortic Stenosis: The “CAIMAN‐ECHO Score”

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Surgery is not recommended in asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS). However, prognosis of these patients is worse than retained. We built a simple score (named by the acronym "CAIMAN") for stratifying asymptomatic patients with AS according to the different risk for cardiovascular events. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data from 141 patients with moderate-to-severe AS followed up for 36 months were analyzed. The end point "outcome" was defined as death of all causes or aortic valve replacement imposed by symptoms or hospital admission for myocardial infarction and/or heart failure. The score was validated in 143 patients prospectively recruited in 2 different centers. RESULTS: The 40 events occurred in the original cohort were associated with higher aortic transvalvular peak jet velocity, calcium score, and observed/predicted left ventricular (LV) mass ratio. Based on the hazard ratios of Cox analysis, the score was calculated as follows: calcium score 1-3 = 1 point, 4 = 6 points; transvalvular peak jet velocity ≤3.6 m/sec = 1 point, 3.6 m/sec = 3 points, observed/predicted LV mass ratio ≤110% = 1 point, >110% = 3 points. After a mean period of 28 ± 18 months, event-free survival was 18%, 42%, 91%, and 96% in the 4 quartiles of echo score. The accuracy of the score in predicting events was 84% and 77% (P = 0.09) in the original and validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The CAIMAN-ECHO score is a simple and feasible tool useful for an accurate prognostic stratification of patients with asymptomatic moderate-to-severe AS.