Adjusted prognostic association of depression following myocardial infarction with mortality and cardiovascular events: individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The association between depression after myocardial infarction and increased risk of mortality and cardiac morbidity may be due to cardiac disease severity. AIMS: To combine original data from studies on the association between post-infarction depression and prognosis into one database, and to investigate to what extent such depression predicts prognosis independently of disease severity. METHOD: An individual patient data meta-analysis of studies was conducted using multilevel, multivariable Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Sixteen studies participated, creating a database of 10 175 post-infarction cases. Hazard ratios for post-infarction depression were 1.32 (95% CI 1.26-1.38, P<0.001) for all-cause mortality and 1.19 (95% CI 1.14-1.24, P<0.001) for cardiovascular events. Hazard ratios adjusted for disease severity were attenuated by 28% and 25% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The association between depression following myocardial infarction and prognosis is attenuated after adjustment for cardiac disease severity. Still, depression remains independently associated with prognosis, with a 22% increased risk of all-cause mortality and a 13% increased risk of cardiovascular events per standard deviation in depression z-score.