Detection and projection of climate changes in Jianghuai Valley, China

Climate changes in the past decades in Jianghuai Valley are detected systematically by using statistical techniques in this study. The results show that the feature of the climate change is warming. Both temperature and precipitation are now in the phase of a relative high climatic base state and the phase of high climatic variability. Therefore, both frequency and strength of extreme climate events such, as hot weather, droughts, and floods, have increased remarkably since 1990s. Finally, the RCM PRECIS developed by Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research is used to provide the predictions of future climate in the valley. The results give an average surface warming of 2.9°C under the SRES B2 emissions scenario by the end of this century (2071-2100). And the precipitation may have a lager increase.