Broadly Applicable Risk Stratification System for Predicting Duration of Hospitalization and Mortality

BACKGROUND: Hospitals are increasingly required to publicly report outcomes, yet performance is best interpreted in the context of population and procedural risk. We sought to develop a risk-adjustment method using administrative claims data to assess both national-level and hospital-specific performance. METHODS: A total of 35,179,507 patient stay records from 2001-2006 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MEDPAR) files were randomly divided into development and validation sets. Risk stratification indices (RSIs) for length of stay and mortality endpoints were derived from aggregate risk associated with individual diagnostic and procedure codes. Performance of RSIs were tested prospectively on the validation database, as well as a single institution registry of 103,324 adult surgical patients, and compared with the Charlson comorbidity index, which was designed to predict 1-yr mortality. The primary outcome was the C statistic indicating the discriminatory power of alternative risk-adjustment methods for prediction of outcome measures. RESULTS: A single risk-stratification model predicted 30-day and 1-yr postdischarge mortality; separate risk-stratification models predicted length of stay and in-hospital mortality. The RSIs performed well on the national dataset (C statistics for median length of stay and 30-day mortality were 0.86 and 0.84). They performed significantly better than the Charlson comorbidity index on the Cleveland Clinic registry for all outcomes. The C statistics for the RSIs and Charlson comorbidity index were 0.89 versus 0.60 for median length of stay, 0.98 versus 0.65 for in-hospital mortality, 0.85 versus 0.76 for 30-day mortality, and 0.83 versus 0.77 for 1-yr mortality. Addition of demographic information only slightly improved performance of the RSI. CONCLUSION: RSI is a broadly applicable and robust system for assessing hospital length of stay and mortality for groups of surgical patients based solely on administrative data.