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This paper utilizes a longitudinal design to explore the relationship between problem drinking in adolescence and problem drinking in later life. Specifically, the issues investigated include the degree to which there is a continuity or lack of continuity of involvement in a particular pattern of drinking between adolescence and young adulthood, and an assessment of the usefulness of adolescent correlates of drinking for understanding adult patterns of drinking. The results indicate that there is little continuity in drinking behavior across time, and that while an explanatory model using as independent variables the impact of negative peers, family social class, family support, and high school success is successful in predicting alcohol involvement at age 18, this model is of little utility in predicting alcohol involvement at age 31.
Temple et al. (Tue,) studied this question.