Appendicular Bone Density and Age Predict Hip Fracture in Women

To determine whether measurement of bone density predicts hip fracture in women, we prospectively studied 9703 nonblack women aged 65 years and older who had measurements of bone mineral density using single-photon absorptiometry in the calcaneus, distal radius, and proximal radius. During an average of 1.6 years of follow-up, 53 hip fractures occurred. The risk of hip fracture was inversely related to bone density at all three measurement sites. After adjusting for age, the relative risk of hip fracture was 1.66 for a decrease of 1 SD in the bone density at the calcaneus (95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 2.26), 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.13 to 2.11) at the distal radius, and 1.41 (95% confidence interval, 1.06 to 1.88) at the proximal radius. None of the three measurements was a significantly better predictor of hip fracture than the others. After adjusting for bone mineral density, the risk of hip fracture doubled for each 10-year increase in age (relative risk, 2.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 3.33). We conclude that decreased bone density in the appendicular skeleton is associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, but this accounts for only part of the age-related increase in risk of hip fracture among older women.