A Realistic Look at the Final Payoffs from Urban Data Systems

T HE GLAMOROUS capabilities of computerized information appear so dazzling that no major city planning proposal is considered respectable unless it contains at least one section on EDP, ADP, or an urban data bank. Nevertheless, automated data systems are still regarded with uncertainty and uneasiness by many key urban decision-makers. How can anyone even a trained data technicianjudge whether these systems are really worth the huge costs involved? Even more significant, how will these systems affect the relative power and influence of various individual decision-makers? Ultimately, the answers to these questions depend upon assessing the final payoffs from urban data systems. Final payoffs are actual improvements in government or private action, as distinguished from improvements in the information on which such action is based. Up to now, most of the concern with urban data systems has not been focused upon final payoffs for three reasons. First, the technical design of these systems has seemed more exciting, more novel-and more amenable to analysis. Second, most detailed analyses of the decision process have been performed by members of computer hardware firms. Naturally, they have concentrated upon describing the impressive improvements in information they c a n undoubtedly deliver. Third, it appears obvious that better data in urban decision-making would have huge final payoffs, because it has hardly been doubted that better information would reduce both the frequency and the magnitude of planning mistakes. ) Ultimately the answers to many of the questions about computerized information depend upon an assessment of the final payoffs of the system, that is, actual improvements in governmental or private actions as distinguished from improvements in the information upon which such action is based. The author analyzes the types of final payoffs and some of the implications for government and private decision-making in urban areas.