Trends in Illicit Drug use in the United States: Conflicting Results from National Surveys

Data from several national studies lead to divergent conclusions regarding trends in illicit drug use in the United States. Two major population studies point to a downturn in drug use dating to the late 1970s. However, a study of drug-related deaths and hospital emergency room visits shows increases in these events in recent years. Studies also show drug use, especially cocaine, continuing to increase among criminals. Additionally, drugs were identified as the most important problem facing the nation in a Gallup poll conducted during the summer of 1989. This paper offers some possible explanations for the divergent trends. Most notably, we suggest that methodological differences in the studies being compared, and lags between trends in the general population and certain subgroups, account for most of the variation in the trend estimates. The paper concludes that illicit drug use is decreasing in the United States.