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Monthly rainfall data from 33 stations over 48 years are analyzed to document the effects of the 1997/1998 El Niño event on Indonesian rainfall. During the “El Niño” year from March 1997 to February 1998, virtually the whole country had rainfall below the 10th percentile, with many stations recording their lowest rainfall on record. Examination of the seasonal variation of rainfall shows that the largest impact was during the period from June to November 1997 (the dry season), with a reduced impact during the December 1997 to February 1998 wet season. Comparisons are made with the 1982/1983 event, and lag relationships are investigated to determine the predictability of severe drought. Key words: Indonesia, El Niño, ENSO, SOI, drought, monsoon.
Kirono et al. (Wed,) studied this question.
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