Association of Change in Cardiovascular Risk Factors With Incident Cardiovascular Events

Importance: There is consistent evidence of the association between ideal cardiovascular health and lower incident cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, most studies used a single measure of cardiovascular health. Objective: To examine how cardiovascular health changes over time and whether these changes are associated with incident CVD. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study in a UK general community (Whitehall II), with examinations of cardiovascular health from 1985/1988 (baseline) and every 5 years thereafter until 2015/2016 and follow-up for incident CVD until March 2017. Exposures: Using the 7 metrics of the American Heart Association (nonsmoking; and ideal levels of body mass index, physical activity, diet, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, and total cholesterol), participants with 0 to 2, 3 to 4, and 5 to 7 ideal metrics were categorized as having low, moderate, and high cardiovascular health. Change in cardiovascular health over 10 years between 1985/1988 and 1997/1999 was considered. Main Outcome and Measure: Incident CVD (coronary heart disease and stroke). Results: The study population included 9256 participants without prior CVD (mean SD age at baseline, 44.8 6.0 years; 2941 32% women), of whom 6326 had data about cardiovascular health change. Over a median follow-up of 18.9 years after 1997/1999, 1114 incident CVD events occurred. In multivariable analysis and compared with individuals with persistently low cardiovascular health (consistently low group, 13.5% of participants; CVD incident rate per 1000 person-years, 9.6 95% CI, 8.4-10.9), there was no significant association with CVD risk in the low to moderate group (6.8% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -1.9 95% CI, -3.9 to 0.1; HR, 0.84 95% CI, 0.66-1.08), the low to high group, (0.3% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -7.7 95% CI, -11.5 to -3.9; HR, 0.19 95% CI, 0.03-1.35), and the moderate to low group (18.0% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -1.3 95% CI, -3.0 to 0.3; HR, 0.96 95% CI, 0.80-1.15). A lower CVD risk was observed in the consistently moderate group (38.9% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -4.2 95% CI, -5.5 to -2.8; HR, 0.62 95% CI, 0.53-0.74), the moderate to high group (5.8% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -6.4 95% CI, -8.0 to -4.7; HR, 0.39 95% CI, 0.27-0.56), the high to low group (1.9% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -5.3 95% CI, -7.8 to -2.8; HR, 0.49 95% CI, 0.29-0.83), the high to moderate group (9.3% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -4.5 95% CI, -6.2 to -2.9; HR, 0.66 95% CI, 0.51-0.85), and the consistently high group (5.5% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -5.6 95% CI, -7.4 to -3.9; HR, 0.57 95% CI, 0.40-0.80). Conclusions and Relevance: Among a group of participants without CVD who received follow-up over a median 18.9 years, there was no consistent relationship between direction of change in category of a composite metric of cardiovascular health and risk of CVD.