The updated model estimates that middle-income countries account for most current long-term iVDPV excreters, confirming that iVDPVs pose significant risks requiring management after global OPV cessation.
Updated modelling confirms the importance of managing risks associated with iVDPV excreters despite highly uncertain prevalence estimates.
Conditions and evidence continue to evolve related to the prediction of the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters, which affect assumptions related to forecasting risks and evaluating potential risk management options. Multiple recent reviews provided information about individual iVDPV excreters, but inconsistencies among the reviews raise some challenges. This analysis revisits the available evidence related to iVDPV excreters and provides updated model estimates that can support future risk management decisions. The results suggest that the prevalence of iVDPV excreters remains highly uncertain and variable, but generally confirms the importance of managing the risks associated with iVDPV excreters throughout the polio endgame in the context of successful cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine use.
Kalkowska et al. (Tue,) conducted a other in Primary immunodeficiency diseases (PIDs) and iVDPV excretion (n=143). Oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) exposure was evaluated on Prevalence of long-term iVDPV excreters. The updated model estimates that middle-income countries account for most current long-term iVDPV excreters, confirming that iVDPVs pose significant risks requiring management after global OPV cessation.