The Impact of Nurse Turnover on Quality of Care and Mortality in Nursing Homes: Evidence from the Great Recession

We estimate the causal effect of nurse turnover on mortality and the quality of nursing home care with a fixed-effect instrumental variable estimation that uses the unemployment rate as an instrument for nursing turnover. We find that ignoring endogeneity leads to a systematic underestimation of the effect of nursing turnover on mortality and quality of care in a sample of California nursing homes. Specifically, a 10 percentage point increase in nurse turnover results in a facility receiving 1.8 additional deficiencies per annual regulatory survey, reflecting a 16.5 percent increase. Not accounting for endogeneity of turnover leads to results that suggest only a 1 percent increase in deficiencies. We also find suggestive evidence that turnover results in lower quality in other dimensions and may increase mortality.