The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices

This article examines how the shale oil revolution has shaped the evolution of U.S. crude oil and gasoline prices. It puts the increased production of shale oil into historical perspective, highlights uncertainties about future shale oil production, and cautions against the view that the United States will become the next Saudi Arabia. It then reviews how the ban on U.S. crude oil exports, capacity constraints in refining and transporting crude oil, and the regional fragmentation of the global market for crude oil after 2010 have affected U.S. oil and gasoline prices. In particular, the article discusses the reasons for the persistent wedge between U.S. and global crude oil prices in recent years, explains why domestic oil trading at a discount has not lowered U.S. gasoline prices, and discusses the role of shale oil in causing the 2014 oil price decline. Finally, the article explores the implications of the shale oil revolution for the U.S. economy and explains why increased shale oil production is unlikely to create a boom in oil-intensive U.S. manufacturing industries.