Leverage and firm performance: new evidence on the role of economic sentiment using accounting information

Purpose The goal of this paper is twofold. First, to examine the role of expectations in shaping agents' behaviour within an extended time frame which incorporates a prolonged harsh downturn of economic activity. Therefore, the authors allow for an indirect impact of economy-wide expectations operating via their coexistence with firms' balance sheet factors. Second, it is tested whether the behaviour of listed firms as regards to debt follows the pecking order theory. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the panel data methodology in the estimation of the financial structure models since unobservable heterogeneity is an important determinant towards the target leverage. A fixed effects estimation procedure, with robust intercepts allowed to vary across firms, was employed to examine the relationship between leverage and performance. Findings The findings offer evidence of patterns of pecking order behaviour and thus for the necessity of internal financing over external debt. The authors also extended the set of determinants by investigating the effect of macroeconomic conditions on the debt decision of firms. Contrary to the authors’ expectations, short-run beliefs of economic agents appear to play a negative role in leverage. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature in a number of ways. First, following the growing literature of loan dynamics, the findings provide useful insights into corporate capital structure decisions in an economy in which businesses were almost excluded from external financing for over a decade. Second, in order to better understand corporate financing decisions, it is necessary to consider the overall economic framework in which companies and especially the listed ones operate.