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PURPOSE. To use the Gompertz function to estimate the age and the amount of myopia at stabilization and to evaluate associated factors in the Correction of Myopia Evaluation Trial (COMET) cohort, a large ethnically diverse group of myopic children. METHODS. The COMET enrolled 469 ethnically diverse children aged 6 to younger than 12 years with spherical equivalent refraction between −1.25 and −4.50 diopters (D). Noncycloplegic refraction was measured semiannually for 4 years and annually thereafter. Right eye data were fit to individual Gompertz functions in participants with at least 6 years of follow-up and at least seven refraction measurements over 11 years. Function parameters were estimated using a nonlinear least squares procedure. Associated factors were evaluated using linear regression. RESULTS. In total, 426 participants (91%) had valid Gompertz curve fits. The mean (SD) age at myopia stabilization was 15.61 (4.17) years, and the mean (SD) amount of myopia at stabilization was −4.87 (2.01) D. Ethnicity (P < 0.0001) but not sex or the number of myopic parents was associated with the age at stabilization. Ethnicity (P = 0.02) and the number of myopic parents (P = 0.01) but not sex were associated with myopia magnitude at stabilization. At stabilization, African Americans were youngest (mean age, 13.82 years) and had the least myopia (mean, −4.36 D). Participants with two versus no myopic parents had approximately 1.00 D more myopia at stabilization. The age and the amount of myopia at stabilization were correlated (r = −0.60, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS. The Gompertz function provides estimates of the age and the amount of myopia at stabilization in an ethnically diverse cohort. These findings should provide guidance on the time course of myopia and on decisions regarding the type and timing of interventions.
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