Smoking Behavior of Newton School Children—5-Year Follow-Up

The smoking habits of Newton, Massachusetts, high school students attending the tenth grade were investigated in 1959 at the age of 15. In 1965 a stratified random sample of these students was again studied in order to examine change in smoking behavior and to identify characteristics which predict future smoking behavior in teenagers. Between the ages of 15 and 21, the percentage of smokers doubled among the girls and almost doubled among the boys, with 55% of the girls and 63% of the boys now smoking. The heavier smokers at age 15 smoked even more at 21. Only 12% of the 15-year-old smokers had stopped smoking, but 36% of nonsmokers had become smokers and 71% of discontinued smokers had resumed smoking, thus pointing to the stability of the smoking habit and to the instability of the discontinued smoking status among young people. Variables predicting relapse by discontinued smokers included parents who smoked, poor academic achievement at school, heavier consumption of cigarettes before discontinuing, judgment of smoking as harmless and a disbelief in the causative role of smoking in lung cancer. Students who had stopped smoking because of influence of others relapsed more readily while those who had stopped because they did not enjoy it were less likely to relapse. A powerful predictor of change from nonsmoker to smoker was the student's own anticipation of smoking. Nonsmokers were less likely to become smokers if they objected to smoking on moral or aesthetic grounds. Social class, parental smoking, and school achievement are still related to smoking at age 21, but mainly due to an effect before the age of 15. It is suggested that antismoking programs might be more effective if conducted before the age of 15.